🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.