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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."